A good measuring stick for a coach’s tenure is tangible improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. Nick Saban increased the Crimson Tide’s win total from 7 to 12 in his first two years at Alabama. Kirby Smart coached Georgia from an 11-win season in 2017 to a 13-win campaign in 2008. In Austin, Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns improved from five wins to eight wins in 2021-22. 

Mike Elko is trying to break a streak in Aggieland. The last two head coaches – Jimbo Fisher and Kevin Sumlin – won fewer games in Year 2 than in Year 1. Fisher fell from nine to eight wins from 2018 to 2019. Sumlin stormed into the SEC with a 11-win 2013 only to fall back to earth with nine wins in 2014. Elko himself won more games (9) in Year 1 at Duke than in Year 2 (7). 

Breaking the trend won’t be easy, however. Texas A&M won eight games in Year 1 under Elko. To better that mark, the Aggies must overcome a tougher schedule and a defense that’ll lack NFL star power along the defensive line after the departures of Nic Scourton, Shemar Stewart, and Shemar Turner. 

Let’s start with the schedule. Texas A&M must travel to Notre Dame, LSU, Missouri, and Texas in 2025 after posting a 2-2 record at home against those four teams last season. The 2025 slate also includes home games against teams with higher expectations in 2025 than last year like Florida, Auburn, and South Carolina. The Aggies would likely be underdogs in at least four of those games – at Notre Dame, at LSU, at Texas, and home to South Carolina – if the betting lines were available today. 

The defense could also take a step back in Year 2 despite Elko’s prowess as a defensive mastermind. He inherited a talented defensive line that included Stewart and Turner before he added Scourton through the transfer portal. That trio combined for 25 of A&M’s 92 tackles for loss and 8.5 of its 25 sacks. Players like Cashius Howell and a trio of transfers must try to replicate the production lost on the edge. 

The problem? There are no Scourton’s in the transfer portal this year, mostly because of revenue sharing. Even the have-nots across the Power Four landscape have money to spend this offseason thanks to the impending boost of revenue headed towards players when the house settlement kicks in this summer. 

That’s allowed the middle-of-the-pack P4 teams to hold onto their best players more frequently, thus diluting the portal pool of top-end talents. The top transfer portal talents in the pool last season included five-star transfer prospects like Caleb Downs, Walter Nolen, Quinshon Judkins, and Cam Ward. The top of this year’s crop was Carson Beck and John Mateer.  

Scourton was the Big 10’s leading sacker in 2023 at Purdue before transferring back home to College Station. The three edge players signed through the transfer portal – Dayon Hayes (Colorado), Samuel M’Pemba (Georgia), and T.J. Searcy (Florida) – combined for 4 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in 2024. Scourton accounted for 5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss by himself last year. 

Texas A&M struggled at times defensively in Year 1 despite having three future NFL draft picks along the defensive line. The Aggies allowed 32.4 points in their five losses. For the season, the unit ranked 90th in pass defense, 64th in sacks, and 57th in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. The group allowed 367.3 yards per game, which checked in at 63rd nationally. 

The good news for Texas A&M is that the offense should take a step forward. Marcel Reed will have a whole offseason to establish himself as the bona fide present and future at quarterback. And he seems like a player perfectly suited for offensive coordinator Collin Klein. 

The Aggies also return four starters along the offensive line and injured center Mark Nabou, as well as their three best running backs and a former five-star in Terry Bussy at receiver. They added two exciting wide receivers in the portal in K.C Concepcion (N.C. State) and Mario Craver (Mississippi State). 

The 2024 season ended with four consecutive losses to Power Four competition, including the 35-31 loss in the bowl game against USC. The team’s only win after that Oct. 26 comeback against LSU at Kyle Field was against New Mexico State. Texas A&M limped into the offseason. Elko’s job is to build back any confidence lost over last two months of his first year on the job. 

But even if Year 2 does see a decrease in wins, the 12th Man shouldn’t push the panic button. Elko was the right hire. He was exactly what the Texas A&M football program needed after Jimbo Fisher. It just might take more than two seasons to right the ship in the country’s deepest conference. Patience feels like a swear word at times for the Aggie faithful, but success isn’t always linear.