Predictions, Ceiling, and Floor for every Texas FCS team in 2025
Could UIW realistically go undefeated in the regular season?
On the surface, Stephen F. Austin’s 7-5 overall record in 2024 was a solid season for the Lumberjacks, following a disappointing 3-8 mark the previous year. Yet, head coach Colby Carthel still laments about what could’ve been last season.
“We found some tough ways to lose games last year. We had a good year, but we were four plays away from having a great year, and that’s been the motivation here,” Carthel said. “We had a 21-point salute through the offseason. We lost four FCS games by a total of 17 points, so we were 21 points from being 11-1.”
The losses included allowing a Hail Mary touchdown to end the first half at McNeese. The Lumberjacks appeared ready to take a 17-point lead late in the third quarter after recovering a fumble. The linebacker had a clear path to the end zone before fumbling the ball off his knee. The ball bounced through the end zone for a touchback, and the Cowboys scored a touchdown with 31 seconds remaining in regulation to secure a 28-24 victory.
Five weeks later, SFA settled for a 40-yard field goal and a six-point lead with 1:56 remaining in regulation, only to watch Southeastern go 75 yards in 13 plays for the game-winning touchdown and a one-point victory with two seconds left.
There was a fumble at East Texas A&M, which was initially returned for a touchdown but was overturned after review. The Southland Conference’s apology the following week did little to remove the sting of the 19-14 defeat.
Then, there was the interception at the UIW 1-yard line while trailing by a touchdown. The defensive back raced down the sideline for a potential pick-six before fumbling the ball at midfield. The Cardinals recovered and held on for a seven-point victory that effectively ended SFA's playoff chances.
“The ball is oblong, and it’ll take some funny bounces. Unfortunately, it bounced away from us a few times last year, but you either win or you learn,” Carthel said. “We learned from some of those tough losses, and the team stayed together and kept fighting through the end of the season.”
That fight was evident in SFA’s season finale against United Athletic Conference champion Abilene Christian. The ‘Jacks held ACU to 35 yards rushing in a convincing 32-19 victory.
“We had nothing to play for and pistol-whipped a Wildcats team that won their conference and went two rounds deep in the playoffs,” Carthel said. “That showed what we’re capable of, and we did that with our backup quarterback. It was a really good year, but it wasn’t a great year.”
Expectations are for 2025 to be a great year, considering the Lumberjacks expect 10 starters to return from an offense that finished 13th in total offense in coordinator Chris Ross’ first season in Nacogdoches despite adding four starting wide receivers and a starting quarterback last summer. The defense was among the top-10 FCS scoring defenses last season, and will be solid this season in defensive coordinator Mike Mutz’s third season with the ‘Jacks.
However, the path will not be easy for the Lumberjacks, who open with road games at Houston and Abilene Christian. SFA has won five of the last six meetings against the Wildcats, including a 24-21 victory that propelled them to the Western Athletic Conference title during their previous visit in 2022.
Still, four of the last six meetings between ACU and SFA have been decided by one score or less. This year’s game will be a significant data point for both teams' playoff resumes.
“We talked during the spring about being ready to play out of the gate,” Carthel said. “We can’t mosey into the season with road games against a Big 12 team and an ACU team that took the North Dakota Bison to the wire at their place. That’s a pretty big one-two punch to start the season.”
Cory’s Take
For the first time in five years, Colby Carthel was not tasked with replacing one of his coordinators. Continuity is key for any college football roster, and the Lumberjacks have plenty of it heading into the 2025 season. SFA has the mix of skill players and depth on both sides of the line of scrimmage to make a run for the Southland Conference title and a playoff bid.
The position groups facing questions heading into fall camp are linebacker and safety, where graduation losses have taken a toll. The Lumberjacks have recruited well at these positions, yet lack experience up the middle of the defense. Look for SFA to add one or two players at these positions from the portal before the start of fall camp.
- Written by Cory Hogue
Coming soon.
Name | Title |
Colby Carthel | Head Coach |
Chris Ross | Offensive Coordinator |
Mike Mutz | Defensive Coordinator |
Nik Nelson | Special Teams Coordinator, Cornerbacks |
Ty Warren | Defensive Line, Run Game Coordinator, Assistant Head Coach |
Jared May | Passing Game Coordinator |
Jonathan Wilson | Running Backs |
Tim Bleil | Tight Ends, Recruiting Coordinator |
Garrett Graf | Offensive Line |
Cameron Rogers | Linebackers |
David Mackie | Outside Linebackers |
Coming soon.
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