The stakes couldn’t be higher for Texas and SMU entering conference championship weeks. The Longhorns are the two-seed and second ranked team in the nation in Tuesday’s College Football Playoff projection. The 3-seed is SMU, though the Mustangs are ranked eighth overall by the committee. 

The Top 4 seeds in the final bracket revealed on Sunday advance to the quarterfinals. Those Top 4 seeds must be comprised of the four highest ranked conference champions. The SEC and ACC champs will be the two or three-seed if Oregon wins the Big Ten. SMU is a 2.5-point favorite against Clemson in the ACC championship Saturday night in Charlotte. Texas is a 2.5-point favorite in the SEC championship Saturday afternoon in Atlanta. 

Texas is in even with a loss. The committee won’t penalize an SEC team for losing in a championship game – at least not that drastically. The Longhorns likely host a first-round game as a 7 or 8-seed if they lose to Georgia again. 

SMU isn’t as cut-and-dry. Six spots of the 12 are spoken for regardless of conference championship week. The winner of the SEC, Big 10, ACC, and Big 12 are in the field. As is the G5 champ (Boise State or UNLV). That leaves six at-large bids. As mentioned, the Big Ten and SEC championship game loser won’t be punished, so that leaves four spots. Ohio State, Indiana, and Tennessee are also locks. 

That leaves one spot. Do you trust the committee to choose a two-loss SMU over a three-loss Alabama or two-loss Miami? The 2014 decision to pick Ohio State instead of Baylor or TCU suggests the bigger brand wins. It isn’t a spot SMU wants to be in on Sunday afternoon.